Our Carabao Cup fourth round predictions cover all eight ties of a round that threw up one genuine blockbuster and several banana-skin fixtures for the Premier League’s bigger names. The draw was made on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, straight after Manchester United’s shock third-round elimination to Brighton & Hove Albion, and it paired Liverpool with Chelsea at Anfield — a tie originally not due to happen in any competition until December, according to Sports Illustrated.
The ties are played across three nights — Tuesday 27 to Thursday 29 October 2026 — with the competition then pausing until the quarter-finals in the week of December 14, semi-finals in January and February, and the final on Sunday, March 21, 2027, according to Yahoo Sports.
Why This Round Carries More Weight Than Usual
With no Premier League-versus-Premier League blowouts cancelled out by two-legged safety nets, every top-flight side involved here is one bad night away from an early cup exit. Several of the clubs below are also juggling Champions League or Europa League group fixtures in the same week, which makes squad rotation — not just form — a genuine storyline. Arsenal and Manchester City, both still involved in Champions League group-stage action, will need to balance minutes carefully.
Liverpool vs Chelsea
This is the standout tie of the round. Liverpool go into it sitting on 9 points from five Premier League games (2 wins, 3 draws, no defeats), part of a five-match unbeaten run shared with only a handful of clubs this season, per Sportsmole‘s table. Chelsea arrive with 7 points from five matches — two wins, one draw, two losses — a record that reflects an attack scoring freely but a defence leaking goals at a worrying rate in recent weeks.
What makes this fixture unusual is the quirk of the calendar: Chelsea were not originally scheduled to face Liverpool in any competition until December, so this cup tie effectively brings the rivalry forward by two months. Expect Arne Slot to rotate selectively rather than wholesale given Liverpool’s superior league position, while Chelsea’s inconsistency makes them harder to read — their high-scoring, high-conceding pattern this season suggests goals at both ends are more likely than a cagey 0-0.
Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion
City are the division’s form side by a distance — five wins from five, unbeaten, and the league’s current form leaders heading into this tie. Brighton, though, are no pushovers: third in the table on 10 points, with the division’s second-best goal difference after a run that has included a heavy win over Aston Villa and a five-goal away haul at Coventry City earlier this season. On paper City are favourites given their perfect start, but Brighton’s attacking numbers mean this is unlikely to be a routine evening at the Etihad.
Everton vs Newcastle United
Everton are unbeaten through their first five league games (2 wins, 3 draws) and sit level on 9 points with Liverpool and Brentford — a genuinely impressive platform under David Moyes. Newcastle, now working under new head coach Matthias Jaissle following a summer managerial change, are mid-table with a mixed 2-2-1 record and an even goal difference. Everton’s defensive solidity at Goodison Park makes them the more settled side coming into this one, though Newcastle’s squad depth gives them the tools to cause problems if they travel with intent rather than caution.
Sunderland vs Brentford
A tie between two sides on very different trajectories this season after both pushed for Europe last term. Brentford are thriving — 9 points from five games, unbeaten, and showing the best goal difference of any side outside the top three. Sunderland, by contrast, are down in 14th with just 4 points from five matches and a negative goal difference. Brentford’s momentum makes them the more dangerous side here, but newly promoted Sunderland have shown they can be stubborn at home even when results haven’t gone their way in the league.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace
A London derby between two clubs short on confidence. Fulham are 19th with just 2 points from five games and the division’s longest current winless run, while Crystal Palace are only marginally better off in 15th on 4 points. Neither side has found consistency in front of goal, which points to this being one of the tighter, more cagey ties of the round rather than a free-scoring affair.
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Both clubs enjoyed strong 2025-26 campaigns — Villa finished fourth, Bournemouth sixth — but both have stumbled badly out of the gate this season. Bournemouth sit 17th with 3 points and no wins in five, while Villa are 16th on 4 points with the same 1-1-3 record as Palace and Sunderland. This tie looks genuinely open given how low confidence is on both sides, which is exactly the kind of fixture that tends to produce cup upsets or extra-time drama.
Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal
The most lopsided tie on paper — Arsenal are the only Premier League club in this round not facing another top-flight side. Fleetwood, playing several divisions below Arsenal in League Two, will likely lean on a well-organised defensive setup and the lift of a famous night at home rather than expecting to match Arsenal’s quality over 90 minutes. Arsenal sit second in the Premier League on 12 points from five games and will be managing fatigue given their Champions League commitments, which could open the door to squad rotation rather than a vastly changed line-up undermining their control of the tie.
Bradford City vs Peterborough United
The only all-League One meeting of the round, and one of the lower-profile ties for Premier League bettors but a genuine occasion for both clubs. Both sides have shown they can be competitive in the third tier this season, and with no clear financial or squad-depth gap to exploit, this looks one of the more evenly-poised fixtures across the whole round.
What’s Next After the Fourth Round
The winners move into the quarter-finals in the week of December 14, 2026, with the semi-finals split across two legs in January and February and the final set for Sunday, March 21, 2027. For clubs like Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, that December date lands in the thick of a congested festive fixture list alongside Premier League title race business, which is worth bearing in mind when assessing how seriously each club is likely to treat this competition from round to round.
Overall, the round splits fairly cleanly into one genuine 50-50 (Liverpool vs Chelsea), two heavy favourites managing rotation risk (Man City, Arsenal), and a cluster of out-of-form Premier League sides whose cup form is genuinely difficult to separate from their league struggles. That unpredictability, more than anything, is what makes this such a compelling round to follow.
Oliver is a sports betting analyst with over 8 years of experience covering football, basketball, and esports across African and international markets. He specializes in odds analysis, bankroll management, and match previews for leagues including the English Premier League, CAF Champions League, and Kenyan Premier League. Oliver is passionate about helping bettors make informed decisions through data-driven insights rather than guesswork. When he’s not breaking down match statistics, he’s testing new betting strategies and reviewing bookmaker platforms for fairness and payout speed.
